The analysis of a community's population: changes, migration and age distribution is a fundamental aspect of a community's Master Plan.  Significant changes affect a community's land use and development patterns, its economic base, employment outlook, and its demand for water, housing, education, and other community resources. 

This chapter examines historical population trends in the Town of Newmarket and places them in the context of the larger county and metropolitan area.  It looks at the impact of natural increase and migration on the Town's population and trends in age distribution.  The chapter also contains population projections through the year 2015.  It concludes with a summary of some of the basic characteristics of Newmarket's population.

4-1 TRENDS

As Figure 4.1 illustrates, Newmarket's population remained fairly stable through most of this century with some decline in the early twenties and thirties.  The 1910-recorded population figure of 3,328 was not attained again until the 1970 census.                                                                              

TABLE 4.1  NEWMARKET POPULATION 1890-2000

Year    Population                   Year       Population

1890    2742                            1950        2709

1900    2892                            1960        3153

1910    3348                            1970        3361

1920    3181                            1980        4290

1930    2511                            1990        7157

1940    264                              2000        8027

Source: US Census 1890-2000.

Newmarket increased in size from 3,153 in 1960 to 3,361 in 1970, a moderate increase of 6.6%.  In 1970 population began to increase more substantially, and by 1980 it reached 4,290, a growth rate of 27.6%.  As Tables 4.1 and 4.2 indicate, this growth was consistent with regional and statewide trends, with Newmarket's growth rate being somewhat lower than the rest of Rockingham County.

In the 1980's Newmarket grew at a rate much greater than both the county and the state, experiencing its largest population increase to date.  Population increased from 4,290 in 1980 to 7,157 in 1990, a 66.8% growth rate.  Population density increased from 258 persons per square mile in 1970 to 550 in 1990.  Newmarket's increased population density is important to consider because of its potential impact on local resources and services.  In the 1990’s the population increase slowed down perhaps as a result of the recession that began in late 1989 and continued through the mid 1990’s. The 2000 Census reported a population of 8027, a 12.2% growth rate.

FIGURE 4.1 NEWMARKET POPULATION 1900-2000 (Not available online)

TABLE 4.2     POPULATION BY DECADE

                        NEWMARKET, ROCKINGHAM COUNTY, NH  

                        1960                 1970                 1980                 1990                 2000

Newmarket  

                   3,153                     3,361                4,290                 7,157                  8,027

Rockingham County         

                   98,642                138,951            190,345         245,845               277,359

New Hampshire                   

                    606,921            737,578             920,610     1,109,252             1,235,786

Source: US Census 1960-2000

TABLE 4.3     PERCENT GROWTH BY DECADE

                                   1960-1970         1970-1980         1980-1990            1990-2000

Newmarket                     

                                   6.6%                      27.6%                      66.8%                    12.2%

Rockingham County

                                   40.8%                   37.0%                       29.1%                    12.8%

New Hampshire

                                  21.5%                   24.8%                       20.4%                    11.4x%

Source: US Census 1960-1990

4-2. NATURAL INCREASE & MIGRATION

Population growth and change can be attributed to two fundamental components: natural increase and migration.  Natural increase refers to the excess of births over deaths in any given time frame, while migration refers to the number of people who have moved into or out of a given geographic area.

In-migration has played a major role in New Hampshire's growth since the 1970's, although that trend slowed somewhat during the first half of the 1980s.  In-migration accounted for nearly 77% of the growth attained during the 1970’s, but between 1980 and 1985, this proportion had slowed to 58%.

As Table 4.4 illustrates, Newmarket demonstrates a slightly different pattern.  Between 1970 and 1980 nearly 87% of its increase was due to in-migration.  Between 1980 and 1985, Newmarket continued its high level of in-migration, with nearly 80% of the total population increase attributable to people coming into Newmarket from other communities.  From 1985 to 1990 this pattern began to change, with only 68% of the population growth attributable to in-migration and 31% gained from natural increase.

Table 4.5 shows comparative birth and death rates for Newmarket, Rockingham County and the State and reveals an emerging trend in Newmarket's population.  Between 1970 and 1980, Newmarket experienced fairly low birth rates as compared with the County and the State.  Through the 1980's, Newmarket's birth rate increased steadily, until in 1990 its birth rate of 19.5 per thousand of population exceeded both the County and the State figures.

TABLE 4.4  BIRTHS, DEATHS AND NATURAL INCREASE FROM 1980 -2000

 Year                       Births                     Deaths                    Natural Increase  

1980                        46                            31                           15

1981                        52                            29                           23

1982                        71                            36                            35

1983                        87                            40                            47

102                          33                            69           

1985                        128                          47                            81

1986                        130                          34                            36

1987                        149                          29                            120

1988                        148                          37                            111

1989                        162                          37                            125

1990                        140                          43                            97

1991                        100                          26                            74

1992                        96                            31                            65

1993                        79                            40                            39

1994                        84                            38                            46

1995                        74                            39                            35

1996                        55                            29                            26

1997                        71                            68                            3

1998                        81                            32                            49

1999                        88                            46                            42

2000                        75                            40                            35

 

 

                 1980-1985     1985-1990  1990-2000                                                                                            
Total Population Increase:                   

                    1,298               1,569             870

Increase due to net Natural Growth      

                    270     +20%    489  +31%  414    +48%

Increase due to net migration         

                1,028     +80% 1,080   +68% 456    +52%

Source: Vital Statistics Report for the State of New Hampshire

                                                                              
TABLE 4.5  COMPARATIVE BIRTH AND DEATH RATES

NEWMARKET, ROCKINGHAM COUNTY, NEW HAMPSHIRE

Birth Rate/ 1000 Population                                     

      Year                Newmarket            Rockingham County    New Hampshire          

     1970                     16.6                                       19.8                        18.3         

     1980                     10.7                                       15.6                        14.9         

   1990                        19.5                                      16.6                         15.7                                                   

Death Rate/ 1000 Population                                               

      Year                Newmarket            Rockingham County    New Hampshire          

     1970                       9.5                                       8.2                           10.2        

     1980                       7.2                                       7.0                             8.2        

     1990                   6.0                                           6.5                             7.6                    

 Source: Vital Statistics Report for the State of New Hampshire

4-3.  AGE DISTRIBUTION

Table 4.6 shows the population of Newmarket broken down by age for 1990 and 2000.  It contains the percentage of the total population that each age group comprises and the percent change between 1990 and 2000.

Pre-school Population

The pre-school population (ages 5 and under) of Newmarket has decreased since 1990.  In 1990 there were 639 children in this category, representing 9% of the total population.  In 2000 there were 499, representing 6% of the population. This change represents a 22% decrease, the largest of all the age categories.  

School-Age Population

Total school age population increased by about 9% from 1990 to 2000.  Although the preschool population declined between 1990 and 2000, the other age brackets increased by about 1% each.  It appears that Newmarket’s school-age population growth rate had leveled off from its rapid growth rate 10 to 20 years ago.

Working Age Population

The 18 to 64 age group is often referred to as the labor force, although not all persons in this group are actually employed or looking for work.  In Newmarket, persons from 25 to 34 years decreased by 18% from 1990 to 2000, while persons 35 to 44 years grew by 26% over the same span.  The number of persons in the 45 to 54 age category changed by the largest percentage showing a 125% increase.  In 1990, this age category represented 6% of the population, in 2000, 13%.  This is consistent with a similar increase in the 25 to 34 year age category, which occurred between 1980 and 900.

A look at the comparative age distributions of Newmarket and Rockingham County indicate that in 2000, Newmarket's population contained a higher proportion of people between the ages of 20 through 24 than the County.  University of New Hampshire students living in Newmarket can account for some of the difference in population distributions.  However, even discounting this influence, it appears that Newmarket has attracted more young adults than have the surrounding towns.

Overall, Newmarket contains more young members of the labor force and fewer older members of population than Rockingham County.  This is illustrated in Table 4.7.

Elderly Population

The number of elderly in Newmarket (ages 65 and over) grew by 19% from 1980 to 1990.  However, the number of elderly declined as a percentage of Newmarket's total population since 1980.  In 1980, this category comprised 10.5% of Newmarket's population and in 1990 only 7.5%.  In Rockingham County in 1990 elderly population made up about 9% of the population.

TABLE 4.6 AGE DISTRIBUTION IN NEWMARKET  1990 - 2000

                                                                                                            

Age Cohorts             1990                                2000                          Percent Chng
                                                                                                                                                                               Under 5 years       639          9%                          499           6%         -22%

5 to 9 years            485          7%                          512           6%            6%

10 to 14 years        385          5%                        481            6%         25%

15 to 19 years        283          4%                          465          5%           64%

20 to 24 years        921          13%                      891            11%          -3%

25 to 34 years        1852        26%                        1513        19%        -18%

35 to 44 years        1165        16%                        1471        18%        26%

45 to 54 years        462          6%                          1038        13%        125%

55 to 64 years        425          6%                          482            6%           4%

65 to 74 years        340          5%                         609            7%        79%

75 years & over    200          3%                          318            3%        59%

Source: US Census 1990, 2000

TABLE 4.7 AGE DISTRIBUTION: NEWMARKET& ROCKINGHAM COUNTY

Age Category                                       Newmarket                           Rockingham    

0 to 19 years                                          24.4%                                     28.5%

20 to 34 years                                        29.9%                                     17.2%

35 to 54 years                                        31.3%                                     35.3%

55 to 64 years                                          6.0%                                       8.8%

65 years and over                                   8.4%                                     10.1%

Source: US Census 2000

4-4. POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Population projections are not a definitive look at the future.  They are planning tools, which can paint scenarios as to what may occur if present trends (or other assumed trends) were to continue.  Unexpected change, such as an unanticipated economic recession or the addition of a large housing development, can alter projections drastically.  Projections are therefore used best when viewed as a general guide where the trend rather than the specific number is focused upon, and they should be updated continuously to incorporate new information.  The Office of State Planning (OSP) releases population projections for the Town of Newmarket and surrounding communities annually.

New Hampshire OSP projections up to the year 2020 were developed through a Cohort Projection System. It is based on three components, fertility, mortality and migration rates. Projections are first made on a county basis, and then brought to the local level through analysis of the community's historical share of its respective county's growth.

TABLE 4.8 POPULATION PROJECTIONS

                         2000        Census2000          2005          2010        2015          2020

Newmarket                          

                           8,330       8027                       9,123         9,728       10,621    11,548   

Rockingham County          

                        266,218   277,359                 282,972   296,418   312,103   400,848  

 

4-5. OTHER POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

Educational Attainment

Table 4.9 depicts the educational attainment for persons over the age of 18 in Newmarket, Rockingham County and New Hampshire.  Newmarket's educational levels are, for the most part, consistent with those of the County and the State.  A slightly higher percentage of Newmarket's population has a bachelor's degree than in the County and State.

TABLE 4.9     EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

Education Level          Newmarket             Rockingham          New Hampshire   

                                       number   percent   number   percent   number   percent  

Less than 9th Grade                            

                                        263          5%          7,068       4%          49,691     6%         

9th-12th Grade No Diploma

                                        548          10%        19,264     11%        100,690   12%       

High School Graduate

                                     1,592       29%        58,105     32%        265,731   32%       

Some College No Degree

                                    1,087       20%        38.110     21%        166,385   20%       

Associate Degree

                                      539          10%        15,553     9%          64,025     8%         

Bachelor's Degree                               

                                    1,034       19%        30,649     17%        126,495   155%     

Graduate or Professional Degree     

                                      428          8%          12,947     7%          57,112     7%         

*Includes only persons 18 years and over

Source: US Census 1990

Income Levels

As Table 4.10 indicates, the median family and household income in Newmarket is below that of the state and county.  Of the 234 communities in New Hampshire, Newmarket is ranked 136 in terms of income.  This is consistent with Newmarket's 1979 income level.                                                                             

 TABLE 4.10   MEDIAN FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME

                        Family Income      Household Income             

Newmarket                 $39,444                  $32,348              

Rockingham County $46,942                  $41,881              

New Hampshire         $41,628                  $36,329              

Source: US Census 1990

Occupational Characteristics

Table 4.11 shows the percent employed by occupation for Newmarket and Rockingham County for 1980 and 1990. 1990 census data shows that Newmarket has a higher percentage of persons than the County employed in precision, production, craft and repair.  It is slightly lower in managerial and professional specialty and technical, sales and administrative.  However, managerial and professional specialty jobs grew by the greatest percentage of all the occupations, which could indicate a trend toward white-collar professionals in Newmarket.

 TABLE 4.11   OCCUPATION CLASSIFICATION 1980-1990

                                 1980                                                            1990   

Occupation      Newmarket   Rockingham                Newmarket   Rockingham 

Managerial & Professional        

                             19%                        24%                             27%                   31%       

Technical, Sales & Admin

                            28%                        30%                             31%                   33%       

Service             

                            12%                        11%                             12%                   11%       

Farming, Forestry, Fisheries              

                                2%                          1%                                1%                    1%        

Precision, Production, Craft              

                            18%                        15%                             16%                   13%       

Operators, Fabricators & Labor        

                            20%                        18%                             13%                  12%       

Source: US Census 1980, 1990